No trace of avian influenza has been found in Utah this year, butWednesday morning, those who would respond to a pandemic crisisgathered in Salt Lake City to play a game of 'what if?' -- while aconference in St. George also assessed the potential consequences ofa bird-flu outbreak.
'It's like asking why a baseball team practices,' said MikeMarshall, state veterinarian, who attended the Salt Lake event. 'Youpractice to get good at what you do.'
The 'what if' game, a 'tabletop exercise' sponsored by the UtahDepartment of Agriculture and Food and the U.S. Department ofHomeland Security, involved natural-resource, health, public-safety,environmental-quality and other state officials, as well asrepresentatives from egg companies and feed producers, the poultryindustry. Professional associations representing farmers andcattlemen joined the mix, along with county governments, Tracy Aviaryand Hogle Zoo.
The goal was to test drive the state's response plan to aninfluenza A outbreak, using a scenario centered on a fictional farmin Moroni that raises 'Super Duper Turkeys.'
Make-believe owners Maggie and Bill notice one morning that thebirds are a little lethargic. Shortly after, the turkeys have nasaldischarge. And by afternoon, many of them are clearly sick, some evendead. It's time to call in the company vet, who will in turn call inthe state vet.
The situation snowballs from there, with two other poultry farmsaffected. Then Maggie and Bill get sick and have to be hospitalized.To add to the stress, an unknown group is claiming responsibility forinfecting the birds.
While state officials can't predict whether real avian flu willever turn into the dreaded pandemic they're preparing for, there'slittle question that at some point there will be a flu pandemic. Ittypically happens several times a century, with varying degrees ofseverity. The goal is to figure out what to do before it happens,said agriculture commissioner Leonard Blackham.
The response would depend in part on the strain. A low-pathogenform of bird flu would likely kill a lot of birds but would notinfect people. A high-pathogen form would kill almost all the birdsand 'could mutate into a people problem,' Marshall said.
Utah's plan emphasizes monitoring, including the mandate thatevery domestic bird brought into Utah have a health certificate. Itincludes testing of sample birds from commercial poultry farms on aregular basis.
State officials want to be prepared, but organizers of the St.George preparedness summit on a potential avian-influenza pandemicwere disappointed in the number of people that turned out for theevent.
'It's not the crowd that I would like to have seen,' saidWashington County Commissioner Jim Eardley following his welcomingremarks to about 200 people attending the one-day event held at theDixie Center. Organizers had expected 500 people to register for themeetings that featured specialists in communicable disease andemergency preparedness.
Sponsors of the summit included the Southwest Utah Public HealthDepartment, Washington County and the Utah Department of Health.State epidemiologist Robert T. Rolfs reviewed clinical aspects of apossible avian-influenza pandemic and its effect on state resources.David Blodgett, director of the the Southwest Utah Public HealthDepartment, discussed specific methods of preparing the county'sprivate and public resources in the event of an outbreak.
If the bird flu were to reach pandemic proportions in WashingtonCounty, health officials estimated about 37,500 people would becomeinfected and fall ill. Depending on the severity of the outbreak,anywhere from 360 people to more than 4,000 could be hospitalized fortreatment.
In a worst-case scenario, said Blodgett, nearly 800 patients inWashington County could ultimately die from the disease during asevere pandemic of the avian flu.
'It appears that an avian-influenza pandemic is likely,' he said.'The potential consequences of such an event are staggering. Now isthe time for those of us who will be responsible to respond to and bemost impacted by a pandemic flu to unite our efforts toward pandemicpreparation.'
On Tuesday, the federal agriculture department announced a $91million request for resources to fight introduction of bird flu intothe country. In Utah, a portion of the money would help boost theanimal-vaccine stockpile and fund bio-security measures to containthe flu, monitor and diagnose wildlife and waterfowl, and fosterpreparedness efforts.
Utah has a lab in Nephi and another in Logan equipped to testbirds for avian influenza. Utah's poultry industry generates $100million a year and employs hundreds of people.
In 1995, Utah did have an outbreak of avian flu, according tostate agriculture officials. Migrating waterfowl came in contact withinfected poultry near Mexico City, then migrated to a central Utahlake near a turkey farm, infecting 2 million turkeys. One-fourth ofthem died and millions of other turkeys were vaccinated.
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